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Por Geovanny Vicente Romero
05:06 ET(09:06 GMT) 20 February, 2020
Nota del editor: Geovanny Vicente Romero es abogado y politólogo, con experiencia como profesor y asesor de políticas públicas y gobernanza. Es un estratega político y consultor de comunicación gubernamental. Entre sus estudios, tiene maestría en Comunicación Política y Gobernanza en la Universidad George Washington. Es fundador del Centro de Políticas Públicas, Desarrollo y Liderazgo RD (CPDL-RD). Síguelo en Twitter: @GeovannyVicentR. Las opiniones expresadas en este artículo son exclusivas del autor.
(CNN Español) — El domingo 16 de febrero, República Dominicana celebraría unas elecciones municipales históricas ya que estas elecciones han sido separadas de las congresuales y se elegirán regidores con el voto preferencial. Igualmente, se aplicaría el conteo manual y el voto automatizado, un sistema cuyo ensayo en las elecciones primarias del año pasado no fue satisfactorio debido a que se alega que pudo dar lugar a las irregularidades de ese proceso interno de los partidos. Actualmente, los que no conocen la naturaleza del voto electrónico perdieron confianza en la metodología, y la Junta Central Electoral (JCE) perdió credibilidad institucionalmente hablando, producto de decisiones erráticas y del poco esfuerzo por demostrar la entereza que las circunstancias requerían.
En efecto, estas elecciones municipales hicieron historia…pero por otro motivo: Julio César Castaños Guzmán, presidente de la JCE, ha anunciado que, “la verdad es que no tenemos una unanimidad de criterio, pero la Junta Central Electoral ha decidido y decide en este momento, siendo las 11 y 11 minutos de la mañana, suspender las elecciones a nivel general”.
¡Qué vergüenza! Fue la primera expresión que me llegó a la cabeza al escuchar este fatídico desenlace para la democracia. Con esta torpeza administrativa y organizativa que nos pone en ridículo frente a la comunidad internacional que a través de mecanismos como la misión de observadores de la Organización de Estados Americanos (OEA) nos monitorea, la JCE electoral se queda sin argumentos frente a todas las ausaciones que en su contra los partidos de la oposición han venido haciéndole desde octubre pasado. Estas denuncias en su momento fueron catalogadas como un “pataleo” –, en dominicano, la acción de no aceptar resultados o de anticiparse a la derrota- y no como una oportunidad de mejorar para crecer en la implementación del nuevo sistema: ¡no fueron humildes y el tiempo se lo enrostra!
Estas elecciones municipales de febrero marcarían el termómetro de las presidenciales de mayo, donde las encuestas ubican en el primer lugar a Luis Abinader, del Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM); en segundo lugar, a Gonzalo Castillo del oficialista Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD); y en tercer lugar a Leonel Fernández, de la organización recién creada La Fuerza del Pueblo (LFP).
Recientemente, tuve la oportunidad de hacer una de las cosas que más disfruto, regresar a la patria que me vio nacer: República Dominicana. Generalmente, el motivo de mi visita a casa envuelve alguna agenda a desarrollar o una invitación a través de la cual termino comprometido para asistir a algún evento. Esta ocasión no fue la excepción pues viajé con el propósito de asistir a la gala del Premio Nacional de la Juventud para el cual estaba nominado como finalista, una celebración que la República Dominicana lleva a cabo el 31 de enero de cada año. En mi caso, la nominación honraba la superación profesional.
El resultado de esa ceremonia ya es conocido y la celebración no evitó que como en cada ocasión en que voy al país visite algunos medios de comunicación en los cuales dialogo la actualidad de la nación y tampoco evitó que sacara tiempo para conversar con amigos analistas que estudian la política dominicana y comparten las actualizaciones más cercanas a la realidad del panorama político desde adentro, amigos con los que mantengo comunicación permanente y que en esta oportunidad vinieron a confirmar todas las teorías que he venido formando en mi cabeza en los últimos meses.
En este proceso actual, a la oposición le convenía el desgaste político que los años les dejan al gobierno del PLD, pero como me comentaba José Sánchez Lebrón, un abogado dominicano que trató ante el Tribunal Constitucional de habilitar a Danilo Medina para reelegirse en el 2020, “lo cierto es que quien gane más alcaldías tendrá más ventaja en la presidencial de mayo. La oposición para asegurar su triunfo en febrero debe dejar la táctica errada que aplicó en 2016 cuando enfocó su estrategia más en lograr el ejecutivo que los gobiernos locales. Por otro lado, el gobierno no puede darse el lujo de perder las alcaldías que ya tiene si quiere que su candidato presidencial continué aumentando puntos”.
En este sentido, de acuerdo a datos de “boca de urna” que allegados me han compartido antes de la suspensión electoral, en la capital, el candidato de gobierno tendría que emplearse a fondo porque “no la tiene fácil”.
A continuación, comparto mi panorama global de lo que le espera a la República Dominicana:
Los posibles escenarios en las elecciones del 2020 en República Dominicana
4113 cargos electivos en ambas elecciones, una gran mayoría en el control del PLD y con posibilidad de cambiar de bando: Esto no solo redibujará el escenario político, también el dinero cambiará de domicilio, considerando los recursos asignados a los gobiernos locales.
Si honran sus promesas, de ganar el PRM –partido opositor con mayor chance–, persecución y acusaciones de corrupción, tema que dicen debe ser tratado desde su raíz, caerán sobre los peledeistas con mayor furia que las ‘plagas de Egipto’, no porque sean los más corruptos, sino porque después de tantos años en el poder algo por ahí pudiera aparecer.
El futuro del Partido Revolucionario Dominicano (PRD), al no alcanzar un porcentaje decente provocando que en el futuro no logre el mínimo requerido por la JCE y pudiera perder su reconocimiento, eventualmente. Improbable por ahora esto último.
La desaparición de los lideres tradicionales de los partidos para dar paso a una nueva generación de jóvenes políticos: En los últimos 25 años, la República Dominicana ha tenido tres presidentes: Leonel Fernández, Hipólito Mejía y Danilo Medina. Esta es una generación de líderes que sucedió a otra de sobresaliente que por casi medio siglo controló la política dominicana, aquella conformada por los lideres José Francisco Peña Gómez, Juan Bosch y Joaquín Balaguer quien se perpetuó en el poder hasta casi los 90 años de edad.En esta ocasión, la Constitución no le permite a Danilo Medina un tercer periodo; el eterno candidato Hipólito Mejía no es parte de la contienda; y Leonel Fernández no es el candidato puntero en el 2020. El escenario actual nos presenta a dos figuras que se disputarán la presidencia, el oficialista Gonzalo Castillo y el líder de la oposición, Luis Abinader. Con uno o con el otro, se abrirá paso a una nueva generación de políticos. Por supuesto, esto último siempre que Gonzalo no deje el gabinete de Danilo Medina casi intacto o que Luis no saque del retiro a los funcionarios que acompañaron a Hipólito.La campaña oficialista se denomina a sí misma “sangre nueva’’. Esto lo demostrarán cuando conformen su gabinete de gobierno pues el presidente es la cara de la administración pero no el día a día de las operaciones de los ministerios.
El lugar en donde quedaría el PLD luego de 20 años siendo la fuerza política gobernante sería devastador perder el poder y requeriría un replanteamiento profundo del partido para evitar recorrer el camino del Partido Reformista Social Cristiano (PRSC) de Balaguer que al igual que PRD de hoy se acostumbró a ser partido de alianza sin candidato presidencial propio.
El transfuguismo podría triplicarse, lo hemos visto con los fanáticos de equipos de béisbol: A partir de los resultados municipales de febrero 2020, se producirá una fuga de dirigentes hacia el partido mejor posicionado para el poder presidencial en mayo.
La Fuerza del Pueblo gana más tiempo para fortalecer sus bases: Este partido nació más grande que el “típico partido nuevo” y de inmediato rediseñó el mapa electoral por el arrastre de la figura de su fundador. La suspensión electoral confirma las denuncias del equipo de Leonel Fernández en las primarias que terminaron con su abandono del PLD. Habría que ver como él capitaliza esta especie de “justicia divina” cuando la de los hombres no le escuchó y como promueve su mensaje a partir de ahora. El transfuguismo se acentuará.
La principal plaza política a nivel municipal podría tener la primera mujer alcaldesa en su historia, tal como señala la analista Eridania Bidó Fernández. El Distrito Nacional es diputado por el oficialista Domingo Contreras, un político con experiencia, formación en temas municipales y recursos a su disposición. Sin embargo, el carisma de Carolina Mejía (hija del expresidente Hipólito Mejía) ha venido abriéndole paso en un terreno hostil para las mujeres. ¡La capital podría ser la gran sorpresa!
El PLD podría pasar de ser mayoría en el congreso a ser minoría: Esto quiere decir que en caso de que Gonzalo ganase las elecciones de mayo ya no tendría “su congreso”, como el presidente Medina se refirió en una ocasión a ese órgano legislativo. Con un congreso hostil la administración de Gonzalo tendría una gobernabilidad débil y sería incapaz de cumplir las promesas de campaña. Por otro lado, si Luis es el presidente en el mismo escenario político, podría gobernar con la misma comodidad legislativa de la que ha gozado el PLD. Ninguno de estos dos panoramas hipotéticos garantiza pesos y contrapesos balanceados, así que si las elecciones congresuales dan resultados equilibrados se enriquecerá el debate político en las dos cámaras y a la democracia dominicana se le evitarán escenarios adversos.
Despidos con el cambio de gobierno: Muchos puestos de trabajo fueron creados durante los últimos 8 años y estos servidores públicos no siempre gozan de protección laboral por no ser puestos con vocación a la permanencia (carrera administrativa).
La economía que más crece de América Latina: Si el PLD no gana, el PRM heredará la deuda que ha contraído el primero en estos últimos años. Dependiendo las medidas que tomen, el crecimiento podría reducirse. Al PLD le ha dado resultados su política macroeconómica y el tamaño de su espacio fiscal. Por suerte, en el equipo técnico de la oposición también hay buenos economistas, como ha reconocido el actual ministro de economía, Juan Ariel Jiménez.
Rompimiento del bipartidismo que ha gobernado el país en los últimos 20 años: Desde 1996 el PLD ha gobernado 5 veces, el PRD, una vez. El PRM nació de la división del PRD y de ganar rompería el bipartidismo de paso matando el PRD que desde hace tiempo se siente más cómodo siendo partido “apéndice”.
El despliegue de más recursos económicos al celebrarse dos elecciones con un posible balotaje: La Constitución dominicana contempla la segunda vuelta en caso de que un candidato no obtenga el 50%+1 de los votos. Esto significa que en esas semanas antes de la segunda vuelta, las dos fuerzas van a disparar hasta el último cartucho en una guerra de “todo o nada” y es precisamente en una segunda vuelta que la participación del ex presidente Leonel Fernández elevará su importancia a la octava potencia. Fernández podría convertirse en el Balaguer de 1996, quien quedó en tercer lugar y pactó con el segundo lugar (era Leonel) y en cambio ganó cuotas de poder. Fernández podría dar su apoyo al número uno o al segundo lugar haciéndolo presidente.
Más que todo, esto está en juego este 2020:
La credibilidad del Órgano Electoral (en cada proceso se cuestiona). La Junta Central Electoral (JCE) tiene el deber y la responsabilidad de organizar esos dos comicios, por lo que el desafío, no solamente es salir bien del montaje, también despejar dudas y generar confianza en la población dominicana, sobre todo en momentos en que todavía hay sectores escépticos sobre el sistema de voto automatizado y que afianzaron aún más ese escepticismo tras los resultados de las primarias. ¡La gran prueba es para la JCE!
Pero, ¿cómo se recupera la confianza?
Las pasadas primarias de octubre debieron darnos una idea del tipo de febrero que tendríamos en el año 2020. Por su incompetencia, esta JCE debió renunciar inmediatamente tras la suspensión de las elecciones, pues la democracia dominicana no resiste esperar que “la tercera sea la vencida”. Su presidente, Julio Cesar Castaños Guzmán, ¡reprobó el examen!
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